Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings announced today it confirmed its options for the fifth and sixth Project Leonardo Class ships with Fincantieri for Norwegian Cruise Line for delivery in 2026 and 2027.

Norwegian Cruise Line will now get six Leonardo-class ships with deliveries starting in 2022. The news pushes the record global cruise ship orderbook to 108 new ships. 

“These orders extend our disciplined and measured newbuild program and strong growth trajectory well into the future and will further drive long-term returns for our shareholders,” said Frank Del Rio, president and CEO.  “Our six ship Leonardo Class fleet will allow us to broaden our deployment into strong performing and mature unserved and underserved markets and offer new experiences to our guests.”

“Following the Breakaway Plus Class, the most successful class in our Company’s history, the highly anticipated Leonardo Class will fuel future growth with exciting and innovative offerings that will meaningfully drive demand from new and loyal returning guests alike,” said Andy Stuart, president and chief executive officer of Norwegian Cruise Line.

Norwegian said that at 140,000 gross tons and accommodating approximately 3,300 guests, this next generation class of ships will build upon the highly successful offering of freedom and flexibility found across Norwegian Cruise Line’s fleet, including the most recent Breakaway Plus Class ships, and feature a host of inventive designs that will further elevate its already award-winning guest experience. 
​
With today's announcement, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has seven ships on order for Norwegian Cruise Line and one for Regent Seven Seas Cruises for a total of eight vessels for delivery through 2027. The company will take delivery of its newest ship, Norwegian Encore, in fall 2019.

The ocean-going cruise ship fleet is poised to expand to 472 ships by 2027, according to the 2018-2019 Cruise Industry News Annual Report, growing from 386 in 2018.


While this does not include yet-be-announced retirements, the ship withdrawal pace is not expected to accelerate, while a record breaking orderbook is expected to continue to grow significantly between 2022 and 2027.
​

This could easily lead to a global fleet of some 500 cruise ships by 2027, with the global fleet having grown substantially from 220 ships in 1998.

Is the cruise industry headed for annual net earnings in the $9 billion range on total gross revenues of $60 billion or more? That is the projection provided by the 2018-2019 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.


The forecast is based on projected capacity growth reaching nearly 40 million passengers by 2027 and the 2017 average spend by each passenger of approximately $1,500 per cruise.


Capacity growth is tracked year by year through 2027 including newbuild orders, ship deployment and withdrawals.


Net earnings are estimated from the publicly traded companies’ 2017 profit margins that ranged from 14 percent from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to 14.8 percent for Carnival Corporation and 18.5 percent for Royal Caribbean Cruises.


A further upside would come from the new and larger ships being yet more efficient to operate and offering more onboard spending opportunities, as well as growing demand in existing markets and tapping new markets.


The two largest companies, Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Cruises, have a string of unbroken annual earnings since their IPOs in 1987 and 1993, respectively.
​

This year will mark the biggest year for new ship deliveries since 2001, when 17 ships and 25,052 berths were introduced to the cruise industry.

For 2018, the number of ships will be the second most of all time, with 16 ships expected to be delivered, according to the cruise ship orderbook.

Berth introductions and capacity, however, will be at an all time high, with 34,352 berths expected to hit the market, according to the 2018-2019 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.
​
The additional berths beat out the record year the industry saw in 2010, when 28,676 berths were introduced.
Twenty-four new ships are expected to be introduced in 2019, according to the cruise ship order book.

As September opens, the global cruise ship orderbook stands at 87 ocean ships, with deliveries extending out through 2026.


There are still three ships set to be delivered in 2017, including the World Dream, Viking Sun and the innovative MSC Seaside.


According to Cruise Industry News, the 87 ships on order are on average, 107,944 tons each, with an average passenger capacity of 2,707 guests.

The average cost per ship is $660 million.


Nine ships are being built specifically for the Chinese market, while 19 of the 87 cruise ships on order are expedition new-builds.


2019 will be a record year for berth introductions, with 22 ships expected to be delivered. 


Sixteen ships on order will be powered by LNG, according to company announcements, while it is expected more will adopt duel fuel power plants going forward.

The cruise industry, which is forecast to post revenues in excess of $37 billion this year, could reach $55 billion over the next decade, according to the 2017-2018 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.

The projected growth track would make Carnival Corporation a $22 billion business in 2027, up from $16.3 billion last year, based on estimated passenger capacity, ship deployments and current spend per passenger per cruise of approximately $1,422 across all of its brands.

Royal Caribbean could see its revenues grow to $12.2 billion from $8.5 billion last year based on its current spend per passenger per cruise of $1,476; and Norwegian could reach $7.5 billion, compared to $4.9 billion last year, based on its current spend per passenger per cruise of $2,025 (including Oceania and Regent).

MSC Cruises could reach $6.6 billion from $2.4 billion last year. Being privately-held and not releasing financial results, the revenue for MSC is calculated based on an industry average spend of approximately $1,500 per passenger per cruise, The average industry-wide spend per passenger per cruise has stayed in the $1,400 to $1,600 range for the past 10 years.

Royal Caribbean Cruises was able to edge out gains on ticket and onboard revenue, while cutting costs in onboard spending, payroll, food, fuel, marketing and other operating expenses, driving an improved second quarter (Q2) performance.

“People have bought all the stuff they need and are looking at buying more experiences,” said Richard Fain, chairman and CEO, speaking on the company’s Tuesday morning Q2 earnings call.

“A strong 2017 provides quite difficult comparables to 2018,” Fain said, calling it a nice problem, but real issue. “We’re also seeing powerful drivers coming from the unique positioning from our special brands. All of our brands are performing at a level we’ve never seen.”

Revenue increased from $2.1 billion in 2016’s second quarter to just under $2.2 billion for 2017, while total cruise operating expenses were down from $1.3 billion to $1.25 billion.

Per Day

Gross revenue per passenger day was $220.61 for Q2 ended June 30, 2017, up from $210.94 last year. Gross ticket revenue was $158.92 this year, compared to $151.95 last year, and onboard spending was $61.69, up from $58.99.

Net revenue per passenger day was $173.10 this year, compared to $163.77 last year. Net ticket revenue was $124.72 and net onboard was $48.38 this year, up from $118.43 and $45.34 respectively last year.

Bullish on Europe

Jason Liberty, CFO, said new bookings were up in the double digits at higher prices over the previous year.
And Europe may be coming back, according to Liberty, who said there was a surge in demand for European sailings from North American guests driven by stable airfare pricing and a stable geopolitical environment.

He noted that there would be a higher percentage of North American guests on Europe sailings than in any year prior. That will also drive pricing as European consumers will need to pay more to cruise, he said. Liberty also went on to say the third quarter will benefit from the demand for Europe.

While demand is good for Europe, supply has also been limited by the company, as both the Royal Caribbean and Celebrity brands have significantly less capacity deployed in Europe this year, according to the 2017-2018 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.

Alaska was referred to as a “record yield” product area by Liberty. Fain noted the suspension of last-minute discounting had been “very positive” to the bottom line. As a result net income rose for the second quarter, with last year’s performance of $229 million eclipsed by this year’s $369 million.

Investors were happy to hear the news which included the Miami-based company’s note that it will increase full-year earnings guidance. After market open, Royal Caribbean shares were up 3.92% just prior to the line’s scheduled earnings call.

China

In China, the Quantum of the Seas has become synonymous with cruise, according to Fain. And while the Mariner will leave the market, Quantum-plus will arrive in China in 2019, giving the market the latest technology.

Fain said that China was now behaving closer to a typical cruise market, with ups and downs, and the company remains focused on the market, driving the evolution of distribution and destination development.

Michael Bayley, president and CEO of Royal Caribbean International, said the China market was an opportunity and capacity withdrawals may be tactical.

“Changes in the deployment are in the short-term. We don’t consider them particularly meaningful in the development of the market,” said Bayley, adding the decision to remove the Mariner of the Seas in 2018 was linked to a drydocking.

Future

“We see lots of reasons to be optimistic about the future. Demand is good, we’re developing new markets and our employees are happy,” Fain added. 
​

AIDA Cruises will open bookings on Friday for its second-ever world cruise as the AIDAaura offers the sailing in autumn of 2018. This comes on the back of AIDAcara's sailing this fall.

On October 8, 2018, the AIDAaura will sail from Hamburg for 117 days, visiting 41 ports in 20 countries on four continents. Many of the destinations will be visited for the first time in AIDA's history. These include South Africa, Namibia, Melbourne, Tasmania and the South Seas archipelago of Fiji, Samoa and New Caledonia, the company said. 

From Hamburg, AIDAaura will set a course for South America. The cruise continues on to Tahiti, Bora Bora, Samoa and Fiji French Polynesia. Sydney, Tasmania, Perth (Australia), Madagascar, South Africa and Namibia.
​
The ship will spend New Years 2019 in Mauritius. Pricing for the full sailing starts at 12,995 euro per person.

The global cruise ship orderbook has reached another new record, with 87 ships on order between now and 2026. 

Recent orders from The Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection and Disney Cruise Line have added to an already blockbuster growth agenda for the cruise industry, and more cruise ship newbuild news is expected to follow from multiple brands this summer.

By the Numbers:

Current Ships on Order: 87

Berths: 235,506

Ships Designed for Chinese Passengers: 8

LNG Powered: 16

Expedition Vessels: 19

Average Size: 107,952 Tons

Average Passenger Capacity: 2,707

Average Cost: $660 Million

Shipyards with Orders: 13

Biggest Orderbook: MSC (10 Ships), Norwegian (6 Ships), Royal Caribbean (6 Ships)
 
Biggest Yard Orderbook: Fincantieri (26 Ships)

Biggest Ship: Two more Oasis-class Royal Caribbean vessels at 227,625 tons and 5,400 passengers, and four MSC World-class LNG-powered ships at 200,000 tons and 5,400 passengers
​
Smallest Ship: Antarctica XXI's 100-passenger, 4,900-ton Magellan Explorer