The year-over-year 2017 capacity is up 33.8 percent from 2016.
Next year, the Majestic Princess will be sailing seasonally in China as will the MSC Splendida, both ships were previously announced to have year-round deployment in China. The total estimated 2018 capacity will be for 3.3 million passengers, up 11 percent from this year.
Other ships, from Carnival Cruise Line and AIDA Cruises, that were previously announced to be entering the market in this time period, have since been deployed elsewhere.
2019 will see a slight increase from the late-year introductions of the first of two Costa newbuilds and a second Norwegian ship for China. Capacity is projected to move up by 1.1 percent to 3.4 million passengers.
The first big bump up, based on announced deployment, happens in 2020 with full-year service of the first of two Costa ships that entered service in 2019, plus the introduction of a second new Costa ship, and the first of two newbuilds by Star Cruises. Capacity will be up 11.5 percent to more than 3.7 million passengers.
With a second newbuild from Star in 2021 and two newbuilds from Carnival’s domestic brand slated to enter service in 2023 and 2024, capacity will reach 5.5 million by 2025.